保持纪律、遵守和信任规则-TheTrendFollowing

POST FROM MM Wednesday, May 10, 2023, 1:30 PM ET

在熊市期间，在触底过程中，您经常会在底部右侧以某种形式出现“震荡”。“原因”通常归因于一些可怕的新闻，这些新闻助长了负面情绪，并依赖于已经在情感和经济上受到打击和疲惫的投资者。这导致最终抛售，标志着从弱手到强手的转变，为新的上升趋势创造了必要的条件。债务上限问题、通胀担忧、衰退猜测和美联储的言论都是看似合理的替罪羊。

但当我们回顾历史，反思我亲身经历的九次熊市时，总是在这些“可怕”的时候，底部形成，大机会即将诞生。

问题是，展望未来……您将选择参与历史叙述的哪一部分？您是否会成为自己特质的受害者并责怪市场和系统/您是否会在错误的时间认输并因不耐烦而将所有辛勤工作冲进马桶？还是您会成为少数几个保持纪律、遵守规则并因此不畏艰险的参与者之一？

我避开噪音并度过这些动荡时期以确保我不会成为自己情绪的受害者的方式，不是通过水晶球，甚至是通过我的经验和技能。这是通过关注个股并坚持合理的买卖原则。这是通过拥有和信任规则。

40 年来，我基于规则的自下而上或“股票说了算”的方法没有让我失望。我的意见和情绪让位于市场的判决。我把我的资本暴露在最好的情况下，并做最坏的打算。我只会在交易成功时变得积极进取，而在交易失败时我总是削减并进行小额交易。在这样做的过程中，我创造了不对称的杠杆作用，并一次又一次地跑赢市场。与此同时，散漫者、怀疑论者和放弃者难以置信地旁观着，想知道……他是怎么做到的？他一定是走运了！

我的答复。四十年后，经历了九次牛市和九次熊市（包括股市历史上最糟糕的熊市和崩盘中的四次）和数十万次股票交易，我想我必须成为世界上最幸运的人世界。

或者也许（只是一个想法）纪律、策略、努力工作和承诺实际上得到了回报，而且市场不是完全随机的？也许这种股票交易技巧不仅仅是一种爱好或一项运动（至少对我们中的一些人而言）。也许交易和投资实际上是一门生意。与任何其他企业一样，有一些原则可以帮助企业取得成功。

我可以向你保证是后者，我也可以向你保证，你有潜力赶上甚至超过我自己的成功。未来将充满机遇。但我也可以保证，你必须深入挖掘并鼓起勇气，像冠军一样思考和行动。因为伟大不会像万圣节的糖果一样分发。相反，它是为那些值得拥有的人保留的，你的价值将被一次又一次地考验。

知识和机会不会自动导致成功；重要的是你用知识做什么，以及当机会来临时你如何处理机会。

第一步：停止担心。停止抱怨。别找借口了。不要相信那些从未取得巨大成功的小丑。跟随并效仿经过验证的个人和经过验证的方法。低下头去做工作。要有耐心。保持纪律，你的未来将足够光明，为那些选择跟随你的脚步旅行的人照亮道路。

Wednesday, May 10, 2023, 1:30 PM ET

During a bear market, you often get a “shakeout” in some form on the right side of a base during the bottoming process. The “reason” is usually attributed to some scary news item that fuels negative sentiment and leans on investors that have already been beaten up and worn out emotionally as well as financially. This leads to the final selling and marks the shift from weak hands to strong hands, creating the conditions necessary for a new uptrend. Debt ceiling issues, inflation worries, recession speculation and Fed language are all plausible scapegoats.

But as we look back at history and as I reflect on the nine bear markets I have lived through personally, it was always during these “scary” times that bottoms were formed and a great opportunity was about to be born.

The question is, going forward… what part of the historic narrative are you going to choose to be part of? Will you be a victim of your own idiosyncrasies and blame the market and the system/ Will you throw in the towel at the wrong time and flush all your hard work down the toilet due to impatience? Or will you be among the rare participants that remain disciplined, sticks to the rules, and as a result, defy the odds?

The way I cut through the noise and navigate these tumultuous times ensuring that I do not fall victim to my own emotions, is not by having a crystal ball or even through my experience and skill. It’s by focusing on the individual stocks and sticking to sound buying and selling principles. It’s through having and trusting rules.

In 40-years, my rules-based bottoms up or “stocks have the final say” approach has not let me down. My opinion and my emotions take a back seat to verdict of the market. I expose my capital to the best and plan for the worst. i only get aggressive when my trades are working, and I always cut back and trade small when they are not. In doing so, I create asymmetric leverage and beat the market time and time again. Meanwhile, the undisciplined, the skeptics and the quitters spectate in disbelief and wonder… how did he do it? He must have gotten lucky!

My response. After four decades, trading through nine bull markets and nine bear markets (including four of the worst bear markets and crashes in stock market history) and hundreds of thousands of stock trades, I would guess that I would have to be the luckiest guy in the world.

Or maybe (just a thought) discipline, strategy, hard work and commitment actually pays off, and the market is not completely random? Maybe this craft of stock trading is not just a hobby or a sport (at least for some of us). Maybe trading and investing is actually a business. And like any other business, there are principles that allow for a successful enterprise.

I can assure you it’s the later, and I can also assure you that you have the potential to match and even exceed my own success. The future will be filled with opportunity. But I can also assure that you will have to dig deep and muster up the courage to think and act like a champion. Because greatness is not handed out like candy on Halloween. To the contrary, it’s reserved for those that deserve it, and your worthiness will be tested over and over again.

Knowledge and opportunity does not automatically lead to success; it’s what you do with the knowledge and how you handle opportunity when it comes knocking.

Step one: Stop worrying. Stop complaining. Stop making excuses. Stop believing the clowns that never experienced huge success. Follow and emulate proven individuals and proven methods. Put your head down and do the work. Be patient. Remain disciplined and your future will be bright enough to light the way for those who choose to travel in your footsteps.

-MM